IntroductionWe got our mobility and transport system not by decreasing the costs of horse breeding. The change from horses to cars is an example of a profitability transition everybody knows. Who could afford a horse for his everyday mobility needs today? It's now an expensive lifestyle item. Big cars pull horses in trailers to events. Take my lecture as something like a prediction: “Horses will be only for rich people, and rich people will pull their horses in trailers with their cars to distant events.” Unimaginable in 1900, but it happened. This means cost optimization is far more than reducing the costs of every component of an established system. Cost optimization has to study past and predictable profitability transitions and to evaluate just reducing costs in an existing system vs. an entirely new system. Many imaginations about our future had been created in the past with completely different parameters. Unchecked conclusions from the past endanger our future with unbearable costs. |












