Simulation download and descriptionThe download contains the 6 locations shown in this paper, each in 3 variants: battery only, central, and decentral: https://climate.pege.org/2026/solar-yield.7zThe download contains the 6 locations shown in this paper, each in 3 variants:
Each file starts with a scenario description 
Scenario description with Uganda Kampala as an example Modules East 25: East-facing modules with a 25° slope. Generator Watt: Why 800,000 W? The average load is tested up to 400 kW, and the daily load profile has 2 hours with twice the average. To keep the simulation simple and avoid complicated ahead planning, we assumed the maximum possible load as the generator size. 200 kW would be the minimum reasonable size. Generator start penalty hours: The cold start requires additional fuel. Maintenance: The maintenance costs each year are 0.02 × CAPEX. Price fast charging kWh: The off-grid fast charging settlement sells fast charging at this price. Methanol buy/sell ratio: You cannot sell for the same price as you buy. At 20 cents/kWh HHV, 0.3 means you sell for 20 cents × 0.3 buy/sell ratio makes 6 cents/kWh HHV. Jump to diagrams with years / methanol price: The price per kWh and the balance are calculated with 8, 12, 16, and 20 years of depreciation and 10, 15, 20, and 25 cents/kWh HHV methanol price. 
Diagram with the 10 best combinations for the lowest kWh production price on the left side and the 10 best combinations with the best balance on the right side The lowest production costs do not always bring the best balance. This depends on the sale price. Selling 1 GWh at 4 cents/kWh production costs for 12 cents/kWh brings 80,000 €. But selling 1.2 GWh at 5 cents/kWh production costs brings 84,000 €. This makes the differences between the viewpoint production costs and balance. At low load, the under-usage of the equipment determines the bad performance in production price and balance. At high load, the fuel usage of the generator determines the bad performance in production price and balance. Purchasing methanol for 20 cents/kWh HHV and converting it with 35% efficiency to electricity means 57 cents in fuel costs per kWh. 
For each battery, power to methanol and load combination is such a statistic: 1,700 statistics for one location. PV unused production: The batteries are fully charged, and power to methanol runs at maximum power. Sure, it would be possible to reduce the unused production by much more batteries and a much stronger power-to-methanol system. All the simulations show that reducing unused production to nearly zero increases costs per kWh. 
Daily load profile is a fast charging station The simulation was created in April 2024 to research the possibility of off-grid fast-charging settlements in Africa. Future versions will have new possibilities to simulate different load profiles. Industry with variable production: It will be possible to set a minimum percent of production rate. So the industry will throttle down in low solar yield situations. Old town buildings: Old buildings usually have bad thermal insulation. They need much heating in winter and much cooling in summer. Greenhouse: Growing plants in a greenhouse has several advantages but requires heating or cooling. |
